#ROCKTHEPOLLS: WEAA ELECTION DAY FORECAST, 11.8.16
This is WEAA’s final Master Poll Average. Through this, we’re attempting to pin down a final forecast for Election Day – and, we’re also assuming we’ll all get final results this evening. There’s a high chance that won’t happen the tighter the gap is between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump. But, who knows: it may be a wrap this evening. Some states such as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and New Hampshire (watch New Hampshire) are giving prognosticators head pains. Polls are within margin of error and the slightest jumps in either direction have made this race all the more stressful.
Based on the WEAA Master Poll Average, Clinton wins by 3.6 percentage points – down from 5.1 percent on November 2nd (a dip typically explained by a revived email fracas that, maybe, had the effect of drawing out Trump voters who weren’t being honest with pollsters all these months and weeks). Clinton commands a big lead in the Electoral College, 299 to 239.
Ok, but does WEAA have a prediction? The WEAA National Political Correspondent will put his EC prediction out there based on the averages, his knowledge of political trends in various states and reports from the field: Clinton at 275 vs. Trump at 263. He’ll stand by those numbers until the final tallies.
A popular vote estimate is really difficult to determine with confidence at this point. Our friends at YouGov offer a final Clinton lead of 4 points.
Three things to consider in that final poll: 1) it’s a final number tabulated days after the revival of the Clinton email fiasco and before FBI Director James Comey finally announced that no criminal charges would be pursued. 2) Seen below, Clinton has a higher percentage of popular support than Trump …
And, lastly, 3) early voting numbers appear to continue favoring Clinton (by about 7 points) …